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5.25
General Social Trend #2:
  
  The ageing population  
     
 

The populations of developed and developing nations are ageing rapidly due to two contributing facts: increased life expectancies and declining birth rates associated with improved living conditions and social choices.

  
 
Country 1995 2050
PNG 2.9 9.7
India 4.6 14.9
Malaysia 3.9 15
Indonesia 4.3 15.7
China 6.1 18.2
New Zealand 11.3 20.4
USA 12.6 20.8
Canada 11.8 21.7
Sweden 17.3 22.3
UK 15.5 22.6
Australia 11.9 24.1
Switzerland 14.2 25.2
Netherlands 13.2 25.6
Japan 14.1 30.2
Greece 15.9 31.4
Italy 16 34.2
Hong Kong 10.2 34.5
 
5.25.1 Implications  
 

The implications and impact of the ageing populations of developed and developing countries will be different to some degree, but all will relate to the same general issues:

 
  • reduction in national savings: • reduced public savings because of the call on public resources for age related services and income support; • reduced private savings through individuals drawing down on their savings to fund their retirement • reduction in investment because of the drawdown on national savings • reduced taxation through wages and salaries and subsequent pressures on federal budgets • a slowing of productivity growth with the contraction of labour supply • loss of human capital through retirement without replacement by younger people.  
  In nations that have also experienced a movement of intelligence into ghettos, the effect will be even more pronounced as the lowest birth rates tend to be the most productive and educated members of society, while the least productive and lower cognitive skilled have a higher birth rate (see megatrend #1).  
  This will amplify the welfare budget gap for many nations causing dramatic changes in government welfare and further social disruption and anger, particularly among the underclasses.  
     
     
 
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